The promotion of a reliable and sustainable power system has as key drivers the development of smart grids associated with demand-side management schemes, diffusion of electric mobility, accommodation of larger shares of distributed generation, in particular microgeneration and the introduction of storage systems. In addition, these technological development vectors represent new business opportunities for several players (utilities, retailers, ESCOs, aggregator entities, etc.), which should be considered by regulatory guidelines accounting for technical efficiency, economic feasibility and tariff affordability. The technical and economic characteristics of the electricity sector (capital intensive, undifferentiated product, regulated tariffs, almost inelastic demand, need of instantaneous balance between supply and demand, etc.) do not induce that the process of technological innovation happens in an endogenous manner within the sector dynamics. Therefore, public policies have a role to play in this process. This communication presents an approach using Problem Structuring Methods to frame the problem of analyzing and evaluating technological innovations and associate incentive policies in the electricity sector. The results of this structuring phase using Soft Systems Methodology suggest a large number of issues that were organized as a hierarchy of objectives. These objectives will correspond to the criteria of a Multicriteria Decision Analysis methodology devoted to assessing the potential courses of action promoting technological innovation. This methodology should provide decision support to policy and decision makers to shape policies aimed at fostering more reliable and sustainable electricity systems.
The Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimated over the lifecycle of the project is one of the most important factors to determine the profitability of wind power project. The methods used to estimate the AEP in a wind farm requires an assessment of the uncertainties associated at all steps. To finance a wind power project, banks requires that the developer submit the uncertainties related to the estimation of AEP’s wind farm, to mitigate errors and increase the project reliability. The appropriate assessment of uncertainties is critical to determine the feasibility and risk in developing a wind energy project. This study presents the main sources of uncertainty in the energy estimate process in wind farms. This information is important for the correct analysis of the economic viability of the project.
Electric integration is a topic discussed and promoted worldwide due to the advantages for the countries involved. In order to enjoy these advantages several countries, mainly in Europe, have created regional electricity markets. For South America countries the creation of a regional electricity market is still a distant option due to economic and social asymmetries and, especially, because of incompatibilities in the regulatory framework and in energy trading mechanisms. This paper aims to analyze the electrical integration process in the South America, concentrating in Brazil the central focus of the analysis. The main constraints of Brazil’s regulatory and electricity trading model are also analyzed, highlighting that the last restructuring process of the electric sector (2003-2004) has defined a commercial model where financial contracts of “physical guarantee” are traded and not electricity itself, and where the power plants do not have autonomy over their production. The characteristics and specificities of the Brazilian model determine boundaries and conditions that must be considered to enable international electricity trade. The already existing integration projects are also analyzed highlighting that these projects were developed under special conditions for taking advantage of specific opportunities without the support of a strategic integration policy. Additionally, the paper addresses two other electrical integration projects that are under discussion, the binational hydroelectric power plants between Brazil-Argentina and between Brazil-Bolivia. The paper concludes that electrical integration with direct participation of Brazil is more feasible for binational projects and short-term surplus trade because of the differences between the Brazilian market design and the other countries market design.
Higher efficiency and reliability of the electric system are important goals to be achieved. The increasing growth and importance of intermittent renewable energy sources and its massive incorporation into the electricity grid, given the efforts to diversify the energy mix and reduce the carbon emissions, bring new challenges to the sector, such as the need of higher levels of flexibility. In this context, demand-side flexibility measures come to light as a way of improving system reliability and, at the same time, defer the need for investments in the expansion of distribution and transmission grids, reducing the demand for additional generation capacity and allowing the shave of peak demand, resulting in a reduction of electricity costs. Among these measures, demand response figures as one of great importance. It is based on electricity consumers’ capability to respond to price signals, increasing the consumers’ role in ensuring system security in a cost effective way. The objective of this article is to examine some of the main challenges and opportunities for enabling demand response programs, taking some lessons from the international experience. An additional effort is to focus on Brazilian case. The methodology consists of bibliographic and documental review, with the analysis of challenges and opportunities, followed by an investigation of demand response programs in Brazil. This paper was developed under the framework of a project supported by the ANEEL’s R&D Program. It was found that technological requirements of demand response can be a great obstacle, as observed in some of the European countries cost-benefit analysis and in the Brazilian case. The Brazilian experience is by all means only incipient and takes advantage of a small part of the full demand response potential, but even in this condition, shows some positive results in efficiency.
This paper takes the regulatory impact evaluation of the incentive mechanism to improve the technical quality of electricity distributors in Brazil. The methodology proposed by the Brazilian regulatory agency (ANEEL) follows the concept of the mechanism RPI – X know by subtracting the productivity gains in the annual tariff adjustments. Inside the X factor the regulator has created a mechanism that increases the tariff recognition of companies that can improve the quality of service. However, this mechanism does not have an empirical model that corroborates the estimated results and set in a discretionary manner the limits of incentive structure. In this paper we have created an empirical model that confronts the estimated elasticity percentage to increase (or decrease) recognition of costs following a panel fixed effects model. In this statistical model it is possible confront the magnitude of the trade-off in the structure of regulatory incentives linked to the amount of reconnaissance of operation and capital costs. The results indicate that in some underlying criteria the tariff recognition is insufficient to offset the increased costs that ensure the improvement of technical quality in both perspectives: punishment and incentive recognition for operate with better practices, especially in some immature concession areas.
The development of smart grids is a complex, multidimensional process, which contemplates the emergence of new technologies, their dissemination and social acceptance, and also a difficult market-creation phase. Such process is therefore better understood through an interdisciplinary approach. In recent years, the approach of the multilevel perspective (MLP) has gained acceptance as an explanatory dynamic methodology of technological transitions; it is based on the concepts of socio-technological regimes, niches and “landscapes”. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the smart grids in Brazil based on the theoretical framework multi-level perspective. The analysis of the status quo and perspectives of development of smart grids in Brazil requires prior knowledge of the motivations and challenges involved. The Brazilian landscape in which smart grids are embedded points to efficiency gains, to the promotion of a more reliable system, and to higher quality as key drivers for the transition, in a context of significant growth in demand. But, it is noteworthy that the current regulatory framework does not encourage investment in network modernization (development of smart grids). Thus, existing smart grid projects in Brazil are currently restricted to early-stage research and development projects, particularly pilot projects.
O artigo, que faz parte do livro “Integração Energética Regional: Desafios Geopolíticos e Climáticos”, editado pela Fundação Konrad Adenauer (KAS), procura apontar algumas das razões pelas quais o Brasil é um ator fundamental no processo de integração elétrica da região sul-americana, embora não seja ainda possível pensar na constituição de um mercado comum de energia, pelo menos no médio prazo. Na primeira parte destacam-se as razões pelas quais não é possível viabilizar um mercado comum de energia elétrica na América do Sul no médio prazo, ressaltando as limitações impostas pelo próprio modelo brasileiro. Na segunda seção destacam-se as experiências de integração do Brasil com os países da região e o papel que este tem como catalizador do processo na América do Sul. Por fim, a conclusão aponta que embora o próprio modelo brasileiro seja um entrave à criação de um mercado comum de energia elétrica, o Brasil tem um papel estratégico e fundamental no avanço do processo de integração elétrica regional.
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Resumen en español:
El artículo busca señalar algunas de las razones por las cuales Brasil es un actor fundamental en el proceso de integración eléctrica de la región, aunque todavía no sea posible pensar en la conformación de un mercado eléctrico común, al menos en el medio plazo. Para ello, este trabajo se divide en tres secciones. En la primera parte se destacan las razones por las cuales no es posible viabilizar un mercado común de energía en América del Sur, por lo menos en el a mediano plazo, resaltando las limitaciones impuestas por el propio modelo brasilero. En la segunda sección, se destacan las experiencias de integración de Brasil con los países de la región y el papel que este tiene como catalizador del proceso en América del Sur. Finalmente, la conclusión señala que aunque el propio modelo brasilero sea un obstáculo para la creación de un mercado común de energía eléctrica, Brasil ejerce un papel estratégico y fundamental en el avance del proceso de integración eléctrica regional.
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Abstract in english:
The article seeks to point out some of the reasons why Brazil is a key player in the energy integration process of the region, although it is not yet possible to think of a common electric market, at least in the medium term. Therefore, this paper is divided into three sections. The first part presents the reasons why it is not possible to structure a common electric market in South America, at least in the medium-term, highlighting the limitations imposed by the Brazilian model. The second part presents the integration experiences of Brazil with its neighbors and the important role it plays in this process in South America. Finally, the conclusion points out that although the Brazilian model is an obstacle for the conformation of a common electric market, Brazil plays a strategic and key role in the progress of the regional energy integration process.
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Em texto publicado na Agência CanalEnergia, o professor do Instituto de Economia da UFRJ e coordenador do GESEL, Nivalde de Castro; o pesquisador sênior do GESEL, Roberto Brandão; e o gerente de P&D da EDP Distribuição, Lucca Zamboni; analisam a viabilidade da promoção de redes inteligentes no território nacional tendo em vista as experiências europeias. Para os autores, “aumento no grau de automação das redes é desejável e merece a formulação de políticas e sinais regulatórios específicos para a sua promoção e difusão. No entanto, a massificação da instalação de medidores inteligentes, sobretudo em pequenos consumidores de baixa tensão, permanece uma questão controversa”.
Em artigo publicado no jornal boliviano La Razón, o coordenador do GESEL/UFRJ, Nivalde de Castro, afirmou que “a construção de uma hidrelétrica binacional [na bacia do Rio Madeira], que estará subordinada a um Programa de Desenvolvimento Regional Sustentável (PDRS), pode se constituir em um vetor estratégico de desenvolvimento econômico e social para a região fronteiriça” entre Brasil e Bolívia. Para Castro, o fato da construção da hidrelétrica estar inserida em um plano regional e nacional de desenvolvimento possibilita que as regiões afetadas diretamente pela hidrelétrica se desenvolvam e ganhem mais expressividade na participação econômica do país, revelando um planejamento com retorno a curto, médio e longo prazo e a iniciativa de dinamizar a região.
Em artigo publicado pelo jornal Valor Econômico, Nivalde de Castro, coordenador do grupo de estudos do Setor Elétrico (GESEL/UFRJ) e Roberto Brandão, pesquisador sênior do grupo, falam da relação entre a seca atual e a crise financeira com acúmulo de obrigações em volumes inéditos relacionadas ao custo de curto prazo de energia. Descrevendo progressivamente as inovações regulatórias adotadas pelo governo, chega-se ao ponto de discussão atual que é uma solução para o déficit de geração das usinas hidroelétrica. Segundo o GESEL, “as inovações regulatórias introduzidas para lidar com a crise foram bem-vindas, pois mantiveram o sistema solvente. Mas espera¬-se que findo mais este capítulo da crise, seja feita uma revisão cuidadosa no modelo de comercialização de energia no atacado a fim de recriar as condições de confiança e estabilidade para o setor”.