sexta, 24 de maio de 2019

Visão 2013

Publicações

  • Setembro 2016 COSTA, Ana Thereza; CASTRO, Nivalde de; LEITE, André Luis; DANTAS, Guilherme; CLARO, Victoria Análise Dos Determinantes Da Matriz Elétrica Brasileira

    A partir do ano de 2004, passou a vigorar um novo modelo para o setor elétrico brasileiro (SEB), com base em três pilares: garantia da expansão da capacidade instalada, modicidade tarifária e universalização do acesso à eletricidade. Para atingir estes objetivos, foi retomado o planejamento subordinado à responsabilidade do Estado, que havia sido transferido para os agentes privados a partir dos anos 1990. A criação da Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) atende tal finalidade, e, através do Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia (PDE), formula anualmente previsões de expansão de oferta e demanda de energia para um período de 10 anos à frente, transformando-se em importante instrumento de planejamento para o SEB. A contratação de nova capacidade instalada passa a se dar via leilões de energia, através dos quais é realizada a concessão de novas usinas e garante-se o atendimento à totalidade da expansão da demanda prevista pelas distribuidoras para os consumidores cativos. O artigo busca fazer uma comparação entre as proposições do PDE e os resultados dos leilões ocorridos até 2015. Essencialmente, procura-se responder se, através do planejamento indicado e dos leilões realizados, estamos de fato caminhando para uma matriz elétrica estratégica para o SEB.

  • Setembro 2016 BIATO, Marcel; CASTRO, Nivalde de; ROSENTAL, Rubens; DORADO, Paola; JALDIN, Valeria Condicionantes e Perspectivas da Integração Energética na América do Sul

    O objetivo central é analisar os desafios e oportunidades da integração elétrica na América do Sul. No momento em que a globalização reorganiza radicalmente as relações econômicas mundiais e lança novos desafios em matéria de sustentabilidade ambiental, abre-se para a América do Sul oportunidade excepcional de redefinir os términos de sua inserção na economia mundial. Maximizar sua competitividade na economia globalizada significa maximizar também suas vantagens comparativas, sobretudo a partir da abundância de recursos naturais e de sua relativa homogeneidade linguística e cultural. A integração da infraestrutura de energia elétrica permite multiplicar os benefícios da integração para o continente: geração de renda; garantia de fornecimento de energia segura, renovável e barata. Oferecem-se assim as melhores condições para consolidar um espaço econômico integrado, capaz de realizar o potencial produtivo da população sul-americana.

  • Setembro 2016 COSTA, Caio; LEITE, André Luis; CASTRO Nivalde de Desempenho do Índice de Energia Elétrica (IEE) à Luz das Mudanças Institucionais no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro

    O presente estudo volta-se para a análise do Desempenho do Índice de Energia Elétrica à Luz das Mudanças Institucionais no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro. Para tal fim, o estudo focou seus esforços na análise do impacto da Medida Provisória nº 579 de 11 de Setembro de 2012 (convertida na Lei nº 12.783/2013) sobre as ações do Setor de Energia Elétrica, representadas aqui pelo respectivo índice do setor na BM&FBOVESPA. Os resultados da pesquisa revelam que a partir do lançamento da Medida Provisória nº 579 até o fim do intervalo de tempo observado (Abril de 2015), o Índice de Energia Elétrica não se recuperou da inversão de tendência provocada por esta medida, o que antes era uma tendência de crescimento instantaneamente se tornou uma tendência de estagnação/declínio.

  • Setembro 2016 VIEGAS, Thales; BRANDÃO, Roberto; LOPES, Carlos; GUIMARÃES, Raphael; MEIRA, Daiane Impactos Das Políticas Públicas Na Expansão Da Utilização Do Gás Natural Na Geração Termelétrica Do Brasil

    A geração termoelétrica foi fomentada por políticas públicas que visavam ancorar a expansão da oferta de gás natural no Brasil e complementar a geração hidroelétrica, mas o parque térmico vem desempenhando um papel mais amplo do que este, embora o suprimento de gás continue sendo um gargalo no país. Novos instrumentos regulatórios devem enfrentar ambos os desafios e potencializar a geração térmica.

  • Setembro 2016 CLARO, Victoria; CASTRO, Nivalde de; DORADO, Paola; MAGALHÃES, Maria Alice e Impactos Socioambientais Da Hidroeletricidade E O Planejamento Energético Brasileiro

    A hidroeletricidade possui papel relevante e estratégico na matriz elétrica brasileira. O Brasil ainda dispõe de grande potencial dessa fonte renovável, principalmente na região Amazônica. Por ser uma região de grande complexidade, a construção de usinas, como Santo Antônio, Jirau, Teles Pires e Belo Monte, tem estado no meio de debates, principalmente pelos impactos socioambientais que podem causar. No entanto, para que esses impactos sejam evitados, mitigados, compensados e/ou potencializados são propostas medidas, que contribuem, inclusive, para o desenvolvimento regional. A análise das possibilidades de ocorrência desses impactos é relacionada aos atrasos no processo licitatório, indicando a existência de outros problemas, falta de maior articulação entre os diferentes órgãos governamentais, falta de regulamentação e, incerteza em certos encaminhamentos para o processo de licenciamento. Para que as projeções de demanda dadas pelo Plano Decenal de Energia (PDE) sejam atendidas, é preciso que os leilões supram as expectativas criadas pelo plano. Porém, algumas usinas não são licitadas no leilão previsto, em função de atrasos para obtenção da licença prévia, em sua maioria por causa dos desafios citados, causando divergências entre as projeções, um dos motivos pelo qual a data de entrada em operação de uma mesma usina pode sofrer variações de um PDE para outro.

  • Setembro 2016 HUBACK, Vanessa; CASTRO, Nivalde de; DANTAS, Guilherme; SILVA Patrícia da; ROSENTAL, Rubens; MAGALHÃES, Maria Alice Mudanças Climáticas E Os Impactos Sobre O Setor De Energia Elétrica: Uma Revisão Da Bibliografia

    O tema de mudanças climáticas vem sendo associado com a questão energética, em especial as energias renováveis, que são dependentes dos recursos naturais como água e vento, por exemplo. A relevância desta relação deve-se ao fato de, por um lado, as fontes renováveis de energia representarem uma das principais alternativas estratégicas para a mitigação da mudança do clima global. E, por outro lado, ao serem dependentes das condições climáticas, ficam potencialmente sujeitas a impactos do próprio fenômeno que pretendem evitar. No entanto, o segmento de geração de energia elétrica baseado em fontes não renováveis, especificamente das centrais termelétricas, também está sujeito aos impactos das mudanças climáticas, no que se refere ao recurso natural água. Os processos de geração das centrais térmicas são também dependentes das águas para suportar os sistemas de resfriamento. Neste contexto, o trabalho proposto tem como objetivo central estruturar uma revisão da literatura sobre o tema de impactos de mudanças climáticas sobre o setor de energia elétrica no segmento das hidrelétricas e das centrais térmicas, tendo como foco analítico o Brasil, os Estados Unidos e União Europeia, em função da diversidade econômica e da composição da matriz elétrica destas regiões.

  • Setembro 2016 HIDD, Gabriel; FERRAZ, Clarice O Mercado Das Empresas De Serviços Energéticos: Uma Comparação Entre Os Mercados Do Reino Unido E Do Brasil

    No presente artigo fazemos uma análise comparativa entre o mercado das Empresas de Serviços Energéticos (ESCOs) no Brasil e no Reino Unido. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o modelo de negócios das ESCOs. Constatamos que soluções de mercado que incentivam a eficiência energética ajudam a desenvolver o mercado das ESCOs.

  • Setembro 2016 MOSZKOWICKZ, Mauricio; PENNA, Caetano; ALVES, Cristóvão; CASTRO, Nivalde de; MIRANDA, Kelli de; ZAMBONI, Lucca O Programa de P&D da ANEEL e o Processo de Inovação no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro

    O setor elétrico mundial está passando por profundas mudanças devido à difusão no mercado de novas tecnologias; processo este que pode ser caracterizado como o início de uma transição tecnológica. Em julho de 2000, a lei brasileira no. 9.991 criou o Programa de P&D do Setor Elétrico, que determina que 1% da receita operacional líquida (ROL) das empresas do setor elétrico deve ser investido em projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D). Quais foram os principais resultados atingidos pelo Programa? E como isso contribuiu (ou não) para o processo de transição em curso? Até o momento, nenhum estudo analisou esses aspectos de forma crítica e formal. Este artigo traz as primeiras percepções de um projeto de pesquisa em curso, cujo objetivo é endereçar essas questões e suprir esta lacuna na literatura. O estudo apresenta uma visão geral dos projetos de P&D desenvolvidos desde 2000, e propõe uma nova metodologia para avaliar, sob o ponto de vista quantitativo e qualitativo, os benefícios do programa. Esta metodologia considera quatro perspectivas: empresas do setor elétrico, o setor elétrico, o setor acadêmico e os fornecedores de sistemas e serviços. O trabalho também traz cenários a serem considerados para aprimorar o Programa de P&D.

  • Setembro 2016 CAMARGO, Rogério; CASTRO, Nivalde de; BRANDÃO, Roberto; MOSZKOWICZ, Maurício; SOUSA, Jorge; FERREIRA, Paula The Regulation Framework: Pushing Innovation in the Brazilian Transmission Sector

    The transmission network is the first link between large power generation facilities and electricity customers. It supplies energy at high voltages to substations, where the energy is distributed via the distribution network. The transmission network today operates with a high level of reliability, but presently a variety of technologies offers the possibility of great improvement in system performance.Sophisticated new monitoring systems may reduce the likelihood of system failures and disruptions that cause serious economic and social consequences. Emerging efficient technologies may also help to solve network expansion constraints, including difficulties to install new transmission lines and to incorporate growing participation of intermittent energy plants, like wind and solar. This paper starts presenting the status and perspectives of the Brazilian transmission sector showing the high level of investment planned until 2024 – 60% cumulative growth of line extensions and the same 60% rate for transformation capacity. In the second part the paper presents the emerging technologies and the potential opportunities it offer to increase, among other factors, the energy quality, O&M structure, availability and reduction of technical losses. These advantages impact not only for new assets but also for the existing ones. Considering the existing assets the paper starts a discussion about the regulatory framework ant the right economic signals to promote investment in innovation and automation. The paper then addresses the emerging regulatory of OFGEM in UK and the existing regulatory barriers that still exists internationally and in Brazil. The paper concludes by identifying an opportunity for developing a regulatory R&D project to deeply analyze this subject and to propose a new regulatory framework to promote an economical feasible innovation process for the Brazilian transmission sector. In the last part the paper presents the guidelines and structure of the project GESEL is starting to develop in the scope of the Brazilian ANEEL regulated R&D program.

  • Setembro 2016 GIANELLONI, Francesco Tommaso; CÂMARA, Lorrane da Silva Costa; DANTAS, Guilherme; FERNANDES, Lucas Merenfeld da silva; MOSZKOWICKZ, Mauricio Desafios Da Difusão De Fontes De Geração Não Controláveis No Brasil

    O objetivo do presente trabalho é identificar alternativas para lidar com os desafios inerentes à expansão de fontes não controláveis na matriz elétrica brasileira. A metodologia utilizada teve como base a realização de revisão bibliográfica, análise documental e consulta a especialistas, visando à construção de dois cenários, um de referência e outro alternativo. Os resultados encontrados indicam que a alternativa a ser priorizada no cenário de referência é baseada na conjugação de contratação de termoelétricas e de reforços no sistema de transmissão. Já no cenário alternativo, são adotadas medidas de gerenciamento da demanda, viabilizada através do desenvolvimento de redes inteligentes e da difusão do armazenamento de energia.

  • Julho 2016 CASTRO, Nivalde de; CÂMARA, Lorrane; RAMALHO, Max "Difusão da geração solar fotovoltaica distribuída no Brasil: Desafios e Cenários"

    O artigo insere-se no projeto de pesquisa “Impacto dos Recursos Energéticos Distribuídos sobre o Setor de Distribuição”, desenvolvido pelo GESEL, financiado pelo Grupo Energisa e vinculado ao Programa de P&D da Aneel. Os autores, Nivalde de Castro, Lorrane Câmara e Max Ramalho, tratam de assuntos debatidos no congresso Brasil Solar Power, no contexto do avanço acelerado da Energia Solar Fotovoltaica. O artigo aborda os temas “comercialização de excedentes”, “questão tributária” e “financiamento”. 

     

    FOR ENGLISH VERSION OF THE ARTICLE, CLIK HERE.

     

    The article is part of the research project "Impact of Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Sector", developed by GESEL with Energisa Group and linked to Aneel’s Research and Development program. The authors, Nivalde Castro, Lorrane House and Max Ramalho, deal with issues discussed in Brazil Solar Power Congress in the context of accelerated advance of Photovoltaic Solar Energy. The article discusses the topics "marketing surplus," "tax issue" and "financing".

  • Junho 2016 MENDES, Ana Luiza Souza; CASTRO, Nivalde de; BRANDÃO, Roberto; CÂMARA, Lorrane; MOSZKOWICZ, Mauricio. “The role of imbalance settlement mechanisms in electricity markets: a comparative analysis between UK and Brazil”

    The work aims to analyze UK’s and Brazil’s wholesale electricity trading models. UK’s model, also known as New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA), can be considered a reference for the present day electricity markets. Recently UK has implemented a market reform that, while maintaining UK’s market structure, introduced several strong regulatory economic signals in order to foster new investments, both in thermal and in low carbon emission electricity generation. Brazil’s wholesale market model is also noteworthy as it managed to promote large scale investments in low carbon generation in a liberalized market environment. However, Brazil’s regulatory framework design proved fragile during a recent long draught period when short term financial obligations related to imbalance settlements soared and led to financial stress and, eventually to a market halt.

  • Fevereiro 2016 CAMARGO, Rogério Pereira de; CASTRO, Nivalde de; BRANDÃO, Roberto; MOSZKOWICZ, Maurício "Brazil –Economic Regulation of Energy Transmission: Incentives for Innovation"

    The transmission network is the first link between large power generation facilities and electricity customers. It supplies energy at high voltages to substations, where the energy is distributed via the distribution network. The transmission network today operates with a high level of reliability, but presently a variety of technologies offers the possibility of great improvement in system performance. Sophisticated new monitoring systems may reduce the likelihood of system failures and disruptions that cause serious economic and social consequences. Emerging efficient technologies may also help to solve network expansion constraints, including difficulties to install new transmission lines and to incorporate growing participation of intermittent energy plants, like wind and solar. This paper starts presenting the status and perspectives of the Brazilian transmission sector showing the high level of investment planned until 2024 – 60% cumulative growth of line extensions and the same 60% rate for transformation capacity. In the second part the paper presents the emerging technologies and the potential opportunities it offer to increase, among other factors, the energy quality, O&M structure, availability and reduction of technical losses. These advantages impact not only for new assets but also for the existing ones. Considering the existing assets the paper starts a discussion about the regulatory framework ant the right economic signals to promote investment in innovation and automation. The paper then addresses the emerging regulatory of OFGEM in UK and the existing regulatory barriers that still exists internationally and in Brazil. The paper concludes by identifying an opportunity for developing a regulatory R&D project to deeply analyze this subject and to propose a new regulatory framework to promote an economical feasible innovation process for the Brazilian transmission sector. In the last part the paper presents the guidelines and structure of the project GESEL is starting to develop in the scope of the Brazilian ANEEL regulated R&D program.

  • Fevereiro 2016 ANTUNES, Carlos Henggeler; DIAS, Luís; DANTAS, Guilherme; MATHIAS, João; ZAMBONI, Lucca "Evaluation of policies and incentive actions to foster technological innovations in the electricity sector - structuring criteria"

    The promotion of a reliable and sustainable power system has as key drivers the development of smart grids associated with demand-side management schemes, diffusion of electric mobility, accommodation of larger shares of distributed generation, in particular microgeneration and the introduction of storage systems. In addition, these technological development vectors represent new business opportunities for several players (utilities, retailers, ESCOs, aggregator entities, etc.), which should be considered by regulatory guidelines accounting for technical efficiency, economic feasibility and tariff affordability. The technical and economic characteristics of the electricity sector (capital intensive, undifferentiated product, regulated tariffs, almost inelastic demand, need of instantaneous balance between supply and demand, etc.) do not induce that the process of technological innovation happens in an endogenous manner within the sector dynamics. Therefore, public policies have a role to play in this process. This communication presents an approach using Problem Structuring Methods to frame the problem of analyzing and evaluating technological innovations and associate incentive policies in the electricity sector. The results of this structuring phase using Soft Systems Methodology suggest a large number of issues that were organized as a hierarchy of objectives. These objectives will correspond to the criteria of a Multicriteria Decision Analysis methodology devoted to assessing the potential courses of action promoting technological innovation. This methodology should provide decision support to policy and decision makers to shape policies aimed at fostering more reliable and sustainable electricity systems.

  • Fevereiro 2016 LIRA, Adriano Gouveia; ROSAS, Pedro André Carvalho; ARAUJO, Alex Mauricio; CASTRO, Nivalde José de "Uncertainties in the estimate of wind farms energy production"

    The Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimated over the lifecycle of the project is one of the most important factors to determine the profitability of wind power project. The methods used to estimate the AEP in a wind farm requires an assessment of the uncertainties associated at all steps. To finance a wind power project, banks requires that the developer submit the uncertainties related to the estimation of AEP's wind farm, to mitigate errors and increase the project reliability. The appropriate assessment of uncertainties is critical to determine the feasibility and risk in developing a wind energy project. This study presents the main sources of uncertainty in the energy estimate process in wind farms. This information is important for the correct analysis of the economic viability of the project.

  • Fevereiro 2016 CASTRO, Nivalde de; BRANDÃO, Roberto; ROSENTAL, Rubens; DORADO, Paola "Brazil and the international electric integration: Background, Current Status and Perspectives"

    Electric integration is a topic discussed and promoted worldwide due to the advantages for the countries involved. In order to enjoy these advantages several countries, mainly in Europe, have created regional electricity markets. For South America countries the creation of a regional electricity market is still a distant option due to economic and social asymmetries and, especially, because of incompatibilities in the regulatory framework and in energy trading mechanisms. This paper aims to analyze the electrical integration process in the South America, concentrating in Brazil the central focus of the analysis. The main constraints of Brazil’s regulatory and electricity trading model are also analyzed, highlighting that the last restructuring process of the electric sector (2003-2004) has defined a commercial model where financial contracts of "physical guarantee" are traded and not electricity itself, and where the power plants do not have autonomy over their production. The characteristics and specificities of the Brazilian model determine boundaries and conditions that must be considered to enable international electricity trade. The already existing integration projects are also analyzed highlighting that these projects were developed under special conditions for taking advantage of specific opportunities without the support of a strategic integration policy. Additionally, the paper addresses two other electrical integration projects that are under discussion, the binational hydroelectric power plants between Brazil-Argentina and between Brazil-Bolivia. The paper concludes that electrical integration with direct participation of Brazil is more feasible for binational projects and short-term surplus trade because of the differences between the Brazilian market design and the other countries market design.

  • Fevereiro 2016 GIANELLONI, Francesco; CÂMARA, Lorrane; LEITE, Andre; MATHIAS, João Felippe Cury Marinho "Demand Response: a survey on Challenges and Opportunities"

    Higher efficiency and reliability of the electric system are important goals to be achieved. The increasing growth and importance of intermittent renewable energy sources and its massive incorporation into the electricity grid, given the efforts to diversify the energy mix and reduce the carbon emissions, bring new challenges to the sector, such as the need of higher levels of flexibility. In this context, demand-side flexibility measures come to light as a way of improving system reliability and, at the same time, defer the need for investments in the expansion of distribution and transmission grids, reducing the demand for additional generation capacity and allowing the shave of peak demand, resulting in a reduction of electricity costs. Among these measures, demand response figures as one of great importance. It is based on electricity consumers’ capability to respond to price signals, increasing the consumers’ role in ensuring system security in a cost effective way. The objective of this article is to examine some of the main challenges and opportunities for enabling demand response programs, taking some lessons from the international experience. An additional effort is to focus on Brazilian case. The methodology consists of bibliographic and documental review, with the analysis of challenges and opportunities, followed by an investigation of demand response programs in Brazil. This paper was developed under the framework of a project supported by the ANEEL's R&D Program. It was found that technological requirements of demand response can be a great obstacle, as observed in some of the European countries cost-benefit analysis and in the Brazilian case. The Brazilian experience is by all means only incipient and takes advantage of a small part of the full demand response potential, but even in this condition, shows some positive results in efficiency.

  • Fevereiro 2016 VIEIRA, Samuel J. C.; CASTRO, Nivalde de; LEITE, Andre L. S. "Regulatory trade-off between encouraging the improvement of technical quality and recognition of operating and capital costs on the distribution network operators in Brazil"

    This paper takes the regulatory impact evaluation of the incentive mechanism to improve the technical quality of electricity distributors in Brazil. The methodology proposed by the Brazilian regulatory agency (ANEEL) follows the concept of the mechanism RPI - X know by subtracting the productivity gains in the annual tariff adjustments. Inside the X factor the regulator has created a mechanism that increases the tariff recognition of companies that can improve the quality of service. However, this mechanism does not have an empirical model that corroborates the estimated results and set in a discretionary manner the limits of incentive structure. In this paper we have created an empirical model that confronts the estimated elasticity percentage to increase (or decrease) recognition of costs following a panel fixed effects model. In this statistical model it is possible confront the magnitude of the trade-off in the structure of regulatory incentives linked to the amount of reconnaissance of operation and capital costs. The results indicate that in some underlying criteria the tariff recognition is insufficient to offset the increased costs that ensure the improvement of technical quality in both perspectives: punishment and incentive recognition for operate with better practices, especially in some immature concession areas.

  • Fevereiro 2016 DANTAS, Guilherme; PENNA, Caetano; VARDIERO, Pedo; ROSENTAL, Rubens; ESPÍNOLA, Maria Alice "Development of Smart Grids in Brazil: a multi-level perspective analysis"

    The development of smart grids is a complex, multidimensional process, which contemplates the emergence of new technologies, their dissemination and social acceptance, and also a difficult market-creation phase. Such process is therefore better understood through an interdisciplinary approach. In recent years, the approach of the multilevel perspective (MLP) has gained acceptance as an explanatory dynamic methodology of technological transitions; it is based on the concepts of socio-technological regimes, niches and “landscapes”. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the smart grids in Brazil based on the theoretical framework multi-level perspective. The analysis of the status quo and perspectives of development of smart grids in Brazil requires prior knowledge of the motivations and challenges involved. The Brazilian landscape in which smart grids are embedded points to efficiency gains, to the promotion of a more reliable system, and to higher quality as key drivers for the transition, in a context of significant growth in demand. But, it is noteworthy that the current regulatory framework does not encourage investment in network modernization (development of smart grids). Thus, existing smart grid projects in Brazil are currently restricted to early-stage research and development projects, particularly pilot projects.

  • Fevereiro 2016 BRAGA, Kesia; RUFIN, Carlos; TORRES, Ernani; BRANDÃO, Roberto "Financial Regulation of the Electricity Distributors: Necessity and Feasibility"

    Since the second half of the 1980s, when electric utilities were first privatized, the ability of the private sector to manage the supply of electricity with safety and quality has become a matter of high relevance for national governments wherever privatization has taken place. In this regard, the severe financial problems that have affected some electric utilities in different countries from time to time, have made it increasingly clear that exposure to financial risk can compromise a utility’s ability to maintain service quality and continuity, and therefore that regulatory authorities should pay attention to the identification and control of utilities’ financial risk exposure. This article aims to explore the factors that could contribute to the financial vulnerability of electricity distribution companies, in order to identify potential instruments for risk recognition and management. This study also proposes to examine possible regulatory policies for monitoring and addressing financial sustainability problems in these companies, a topic which has so far received scant attention in the international literature on electricity regulation. Lastly, this paper will evaluate the feasibility of regulating the financial exposure of electricity distributors.

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